Prediction markets · Daily analysis
Every day we analyze politics, finance and sports through Polymarket data, verified sources and reasoned forecasts.
Editorial
Polymarket traders assign a 94.5% probability that Satoshi Nakamoto will not move any Bitcoin in 2026. No verified outflows from labeled wallets have been recorded, and multiple factors suggest the coins will remain dormant.
Our prediction
No 98% · confidence high
Polymarket traders bet on the date by which the US will officially announce a halt in offensive operations against Iran. A de facto pause ended after Iran launched a surprise attack on July 28, making a formal announcement unlikely by July 31 but possible by August 31.
Our prediction
August 31 30% · confidence low
Aryna Sabalenka is the clear favorite to win the 2026 US Open women's singles title, with Polymarket odds at 28%. She is the two-time defending champion and leads a strong field that includes Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff. However, risks include potential upsets, injuries, and the depth of the field.
Our prediction
Aryna Sabalenka 32% · confidence medium
Polymarket data shows a 46.8% probability that Ethereum will trade below $1,800 in July 2026. The market is heavily skewed toward the downside, with the next most likely outcome being a rise to $2,000 at 18.5%. Key factors include the upcoming Fed rate decision and recent technical resistance near $1,950.
Our prediction
↓ 1,800 55% · confidence medium
Polymarket odds show Gadi Eisenkot as the favorite (52%) to become Israel's next prime minister after the October 27, 2026 election, with Benjamin Netanyahu at 34.5%. Recent polls show a tight race, but coalition dynamics remain highly uncertain.
Our prediction
Gadi Eizenkot 55% · confidence medium
Mercedes leads the 2026 F1 Constructors' Championship by 72 points after the Hungarian Grand Prix. Polymarket assigns an 83.5% probability of them winning the title, with Ferrari (10.8%) and McLaren (1.3%) as distant outsiders.
Our prediction
Mercedes 85% · confidence medium
From the Polymarket book
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Prediction markets involve risk of capital loss and may not be legal in your jurisdiction. 18+ only. PolyVeritas is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not invite you to trade.
Track record
Predicted: August 31
Predicted: Aryna Sabalenka
Predicted: ↓ 1,800
Important note
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, political or investment advice, betting advice, or any operational recommendation.
